Why Tinubu Cannot Intervene Militarily?

The question of a military intervention in Niger is the subject of complex debates and various reactions in Nigeria, in particular concerning the current president of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and head of state of Nigeria. , Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Faced with the prospect of a joint operation by ECOWAS, the reluctance of the Nigerian Senate and the concerned public opinion of Nigeria play a significant role in this dynamic.

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Nigerian reactions to potential intervention

Nigerian public opinion is reluctant to the idea of ​​a joint military intervention in Niger, led by the West African organization. Various voices are raised against this option, including Islamic leaders, governors, youth associations and most opposition parties. Among the most pronounced criticisms, Nigerian senators stand out for their restraint, expressed on the eve of the end of the ECOWAS ultimatum for the restoration of constitutional order in Niger.

The Senate meeting highlighted the delicate position of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as President of ECOWAS and Nigerian Head of State. The President of the Senate expressed the need to favor diplomatic and political options to resolve the situation in Niger. Although Tinubu did not seek the opinion of the senators, he informed them of the decisions taken by ECOWAS to restore constitutional order.

The Nigerian constitution imposes certain legal constraints on the declaration of war and the deployment of armed forces abroad. Although the Head of State has the power to engage the armed forces in targeted combat outside Nigeria in the event of an imminent threat, the Senate must be consulted. Senators from northern Nigeria are expressing concerns about the potential consequences of military intervention in the border regions with Niger.

Leading role of Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s role in this context is complex, involving both his position as President of Nigeria and his role as President of ECOWAS. The economic and security challenges already present in Nigeria accentuate the reluctance to engage in a risky military operation. However, Tinubu’s expertise as a regional leader could influence the final decision.

The situation around the possible military intervention in Niger remains tense, with complex political, legal and regional considerations. While ECOWAS member countries remain determined to use force if necessary, reluctance and internal challenges in Nigeria cast shadows on this enterprise. Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision and how it will be perceived nationally and regionally will be crucial for the future of the region.

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